Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
82 0x8250…eebc sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$44 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,020per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,113
7 days+$729
14 days+$788
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$4,082
other 16% −$2,196
world 3% −$1,070
crypto 3% −$1,008
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 53% -5.4%
≤30d 29 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -10.1%
≤90d 29 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -10.1%
all 29 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -10.1%
10% -23.6% 48% -18.7%
15% -31.0% 48% -26.6%
20% -37.7% 48% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,116) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,015 vs −$960 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,586
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,020
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 50¢ 50¢ $1,110 $1,099 −$11 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $480 $487 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,147 +$1,113 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,175 −$1,160 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,114 +$849 +76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,135 +$938 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $113 −$110 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,115 +$886 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,116 +$961 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,135 −$1,119 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,114 +$816 +73%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,116 +$1,041 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,156 +$955 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,156 −$1,140 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,144 +$1,203 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,116 +$1,000 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,076 −$1,061 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$805 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,086 −$1,070 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,009 +$1,104 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $967 −$954 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,024 −$1,008 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,012 −$997 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $965 +$1,056 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $993 −$977 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $112 22m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $1,015 23m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 32¢ $157 24m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,147 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $1,175 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $43 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $1,071 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $103 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1,034 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $100 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $1,000 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,115 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,014 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1,034 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $102 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $1,015 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $36 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $1 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $5 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $50 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $1 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $7 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $148 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,586.38 · official $1,586.38 (match) · 98 history records