Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x824f…b105
sports · 18 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$1,903 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,903 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage49d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$653
7 days−$1,103
14 days−$1,903
30 days−$1,903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 38¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $235 +$62 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $382 −$148 -39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $378 +$4 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $304 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $306 −$300 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $305 +$330 +108%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $203 +$262 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $352 −$352 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $811 −$811 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $508 −$508 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $507 +$472 +93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $102 +$103 +102%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $507 +$385 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $507 +$401 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,693 −$800 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1,903
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 93¢ $297 38m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 73¢ $235 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 31¢ $234 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $382 15h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 50¢ $382 17h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $378 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 38¢ $306 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $635 43h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 47h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $304 47h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group SELL Leo Team 100¢ $465 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY Leo Team 43¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 52¢ $203 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 100¢ $979 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $205 5d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 51¢ $507 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 54¢ $811 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 100¢ $892 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Astralis 100¢ $908 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $507 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 55¢ $507 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 30¢ $620 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 44¢ $273 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 61¢ $1,693 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $352 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.2% -21.5% 47% 41% -25.9%
≤30d 18 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 39% -31.6%
≤90d 18 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 39% -31.6%
all 18 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 39% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 39% -31.6%
10% -30.5% 39% -38.2%
15% -37.2% 33% -44.1%
20% -43.4% 33% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records