Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
82 0x824f…72b2 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$53 (+16%) realized +$15 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$64
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$78
world 22% +$24
crypto 2% −$3
tech 2% −$5
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +163.4% +138.3% 67% 67% +34.6%
≤30d 9 +23.1% +11.4% 33% 33% +23.1%
≤90d 9 +23.1% +11.4% 33% 33% +23.1%
all 9 +23.1% +11.4% 33% 33% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 33% +23.1%
10% +0.7% 33% +11.3%
15% -9.0% 33% +0.5%
20% -17.9% 33% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$12 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $193 $231 +$38 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$40 +73%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$84 +517%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.08 · official $231.11 (match) · 15 history records