Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x824c…e309 crypto 479 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,046 (-14%) realized −$3,046 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%256W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$352
7 days−$79
14 days+$206
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,209
other 6% −$276
sports 4% −$78
world 4% −$478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +6.5% -3.6% 57% 56% -11.7%
≤30d 281 +3.5% -6.4% 59% 55% -6.9%
≤90d 427 -6.2% -15.2% 54% 48% -17.4%
all 479 -7.8% -16.6% 53% 47% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -22.4%
10% -24.6% 42% -29.9%
15% -31.8% 34% -36.6%
20% -38.5% 27% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses256 / 223
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)479 / 479
History coverage137d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 479 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $259 +$86 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $298 +$307 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$16 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$83 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $188 +$89 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$26 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$22 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$23 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$15 +119%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $151 +$37 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$120 -80%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $345 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $259 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $605 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $298 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $185 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $188 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $43 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $24 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $48 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 947 history records