Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8247…d8cc culture 304 markets active 14h ago coverage 522d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 521d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77,638 (+10%) realized +$80,577 · open −$2,939
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%185W / 112L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$2,496per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$11,436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 522d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 37% +$9,542
other 28% +$7,548
world 22% +$444
politics 10% −$1,944
crypto 3% +$1,120
weather 0% +$29
tech 0% +$45
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.6% -16.4% 33% 17% -5.7%
≤30d 29 -10.5% -19.1% 52% 21% -6.3%
≤90d 95 -9.9% -18.5% 66% 20% -8.7%
all 297 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 24% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 24% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 15% -15.9%
15% -24.7% 11% -24.0%
20% -32.1% 9% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,825) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$206 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$11,436
Realized+$80,577
Unrealized−$2,939
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses185 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)297 / 304
History coverage522d ⚠
Avg bet$2,496
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 80¢ $5,000 $7,950 +$2,950 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $5,000 $2,050 −$2,950 (-59%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $590 $617 +$28 (+5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $370 $375 +$5 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $267 $273 +$6 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $178 $167 −$11 (-6%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-82%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 27 $192 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $481 −$33 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $320 −$182 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $7,904 +$96 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 22 $3,452 +$657 +19%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 22 $79 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $127 −$101 -80%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $249 +$169 +68%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 15 $303 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $175 +$109 +62%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $2,121 +$454 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $405 +$16 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$11 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6,013 −$36 -1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 09 $357 +$73 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,867 +$18 +0%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $233 +$21 +9%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $17 −$6 -35%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 06 $207 −$8 -4%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $370 +$125 +34%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $639 −$51 -8%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? Jun 02 $629 +$15 +2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $7,276 +$132 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,932 +$190 +10%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $399 −$102 -26%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $188 −$46 -24%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 30 $11 −$11 -95%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 30 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $6,122 +$36 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $5,619 +$48 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $920 +$392 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? May 27 $1,510 +$16 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $324 −$88 -27%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 22 $820 −$713 -87%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 48 million views on day 3? May 21 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 19 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 40 million views on day 2 May 19 $6,720 +$8 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 18 $10,067 +$40 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 16 $291 +$12 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9,501 +$199 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $8,957 +$34 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $1,022 +$3 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m May 12 $8,428 +$9 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 10 $75 −$11 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 10 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 10 $467 +$15 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 10 $3,358 +$48 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? BUY Yes 95¢ $591 29h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $188 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $67 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $178 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $74 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $267 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $14 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $19 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,435.82 · official $11,435.82 (match) · 3500 history records