Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8247…503e crypto 1140 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,236 (+2%) realized +$1,236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%767W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$729
sports 4% +$169
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.9% -33.9% 58% 27% -30.3%
≤30d 26 -26.9% -33.9% 58% 27% -30.3%
≤90d 1140 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 47% -10.2%
all 1140 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 47% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 47% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 34% -18.8%
15% -30.7% 23% -26.6%
20% -37.5% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$50 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses767 / 373
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1140 / 1140
History coverage56d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1140 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$39 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 09 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 09 $89 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 09 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $25 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 09 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 09 $105 +$291 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 09 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 09 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 09 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $55 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $49 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 17h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 68¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2674 history records