Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8246…ba62 other 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$39
sports 20% −$16
culture 8% −$6
politics 7% −$3
economics 7% −$11
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage126d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $153 −$1 -1%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $466 −$2 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $402 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $371 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $472 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $552 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $119 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $358 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $243 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $407 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $214 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $538 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 2h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 4h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 5h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 6h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 9h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 10h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 11h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 20h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 22h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 23h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 24h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 29h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 31h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 44h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 45h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 46h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.21 · official $47.21 (match) · 1306 history records