Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8242…bfcf politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,397 (-1%) realized −$1,398 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$896per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$52
other 26% +$1
sports 23% −$1,374
world 4% $0
culture 3% −$3
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -23.4% -30.7% 7% 0% -12.6%
all 127 -4.2% -13.4% 21% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 9% -10.6%
10% -21.7% 9% -19.2%
15% -29.2% 7% -27.0%
20% -36.2% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized−$1,398
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage142d
Avg bet$896
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $663 $664 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $317 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,555 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,487 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $365 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $481 +$2 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,262 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 02 $854 +$2 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $425 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $369 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,461 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,674 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,453 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,415 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $341 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 07 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 24 $1,092 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Predators Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-14? Mar 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $227 23h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $227 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $316 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 28h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $456 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $457 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $663 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,090 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,093 10d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,095 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,118 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,120 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,063 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,064 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,143 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,145 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,093 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.33 · official $664.33 (match) · 379 history records