Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8242…e84f world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate35%20W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
sports 22% +$19
other 20% −$34
politics 11% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 30% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 40 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 2% -9.6%
all 57 +3.9% -6.0% 35% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 12% -10.0%
10% -15.0% 11% -18.6%
15% -23.2% 11% -26.5%
20% -30.7% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses20 / 37
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage526d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $346 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $75 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 −$1 -18%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $44 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $30 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $19 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $47 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $314 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $283 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $283 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Alabama A&M vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Rutgers vs. Oregon Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-15? Feb 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February Feb 16 $7 $0 -7%
Cal Poly vs. CSU Fullerton Feb 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Chicago State vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Feb 13 $2 $0 +5%
Boston Univ. vs. Bucknell Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Feb 13 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Danny DeVito attend Super Bowl LIX? Feb 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas A&M Commerce vs. McNeese State Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $37 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $22 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $9 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $11 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $29 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $29 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $36 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $11 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $14 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $22 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records