Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8240…d93e crypto 49 markets active 3h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,058 (-34%) realized −$1,001 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$843
world 33% +$3
politics 3% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-60.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 47 -56.8% -60.9% 19% 17% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.9% 17% -42.2%
10% -64.7% 17% -47.7%
15% -68.1% 15% -52.8%
20% -71.2% 13% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$41 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage112d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $510 $428 −$82 (-16%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 09 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial" 5+ times during tech signing event Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 08 $200 −$61 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 04 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$117 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 26 $50 +$104 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 24 $50 +$67 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 24 $52 +$89 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 24 $60 +$70 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 24 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 24 $115 +$38 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 24 $100 +$127 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $25 99d
Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday? BUY No 2¢ $5 103d
Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday? BUY No 1¢ $10 103d
Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday? BUY No 1¢ $10 103d
Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing BUY No 1¢ $10 103d
Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing BUY No 1¢ $10 103d
Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday? BUY No 2¢ $10 103d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial" 5+ times during tech signing event BUY No 5¢ $25 103d
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday BUY No 4¢ $25 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $25 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $50 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $15 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $50 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 72¢ $200 108d
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $25 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $50 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $50 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.21 · official $553.21 (match) · 128 history records