Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x823d…8091 sports 686 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38,658 (-10%) realized −$38,594 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%320W / 365L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$737est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,633
7 days−$254
14 days−$3,240
30 days+$976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$19,610
crypto 32% −$4,953
other 12% −$13,127
culture 2% −$1,333
world 1% −$1,397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 54% -11.2%
≤30d 100 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 100 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 50% -8.3%
all 685 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 41% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 41% -19.0%
10% -26.0% 36% -26.7%
15% -33.2% 30% -33.8%
20% -39.7% 27% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$622) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$392 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$38,594
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses320 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$737
Open positions1
Markets (closed)685 / 686
History coverage440d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 66¢ $364 $300 −$64 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $273 +$89 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 +$17 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 +$23 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $98 +$26 +27%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $46 −$29 -63%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$27 +141%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $350 −$331 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $696 −$687 -99%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $416 +$280 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $891 −$881 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $780 −$768 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,722 −$2,708 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,273 +$1,450 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,025 +$247 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,172 +$1,853 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $817 +$355 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 11 $609 +$208 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $681 −$34 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $334 −$329 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $527 +$491 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$55 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $586 +$668 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 03 $3,007 −$2,988 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $1,606 +$1,401 +87%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 03 $975 −$403 -41%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Was Jun 03 $275 −$271 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $464 −$188 -40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,955 −$1,934 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 03 $500 −$499 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $52 −$33 -63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $3,896 +$1,066 +27%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1,864 +$2,031 +109%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $1,593 +$271 +17%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $1,424 +$169 +12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $601 −$63 -10%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,026 −$151 -15%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5 Jun 02 $1,456 −$1,433 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,361 +$100 +7%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $1,001 +$358 +36%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $776 +$226 +29%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $53 −$53 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 02 $588 +$594 +101%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5 Jun 02 $299 +$277 +93%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5 Jun 02 $385 +$439 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $3,254 −$2,690 -83%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $730 −$358 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $207 +$185 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$77 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $366 38m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Team to Take First Corner SELL Uruguay 99¢ $363 40m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY Uruguay 74¢ $273 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $124 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $98 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $97 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $17 2h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals SELL Yes 11¢ $17 2h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $46 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $18 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $120 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $350 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $2 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $694 19h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $696 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $48 22h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $416 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $891 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $778 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,720 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,268 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $1,272 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.39 · official $300.39 (match) · 2431 history records