Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x823d…edef
other · 136 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$22 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 124
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
Avg bet$150
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 0 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 77¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Bucks Bucks 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Heat Pistons 52¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Kings vs. Hornets Kings 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Nets vs. Warriors Nets 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Lakers Wizards 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mavericks 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Jazz 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Suns Suns 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $151 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $143 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $132 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $380 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $163 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $122 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $148 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $549 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $299 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $271 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $454 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $165 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $145 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$10
politics 38% −$10
sports 5% $0
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 28h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $151 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $151 17d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $143 17d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $143 18d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $122 19d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $122 19d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $126 19d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $126 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $127 21d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $127 21d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $139 21d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $139 22d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $132 22d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $132 23d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $141 24d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $141 24d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $119 24d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $119 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 131 +0.3% -9.3% 9% 7% -9.4%
all 136 -1.9% -11.3% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records