Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
82 0x823b…81c8 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$387 (+10%) realized +$389 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$307
14 days+$338
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$250
crypto 14% +$39
sports 12% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 40% -0.9%
≤30d 64 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 42% -0.4%
≤90d 64 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 42% -0.4%
all 64 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 42% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -0.4%
10% -25.6% 33% -9.9%
15% -32.7% 23% -18.6%
20% -39.3% 17% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$389
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)64 / 74
History coverage9d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $242 $240 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 39¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $330 +$31 +9%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$53 +130%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$27 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $251 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$8 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 +$28 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$24 +60%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $151 +$15 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$8 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$14 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$27 +133%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$17 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$6 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$25 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $433 +$75 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $244 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $151 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $94 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 12h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $229 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $186 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 14h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $34 14h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 81¢ $88 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 34h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 34h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 36h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.80 · official $468.80 (match) · 205 history records