Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x823a…a771 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$637 (-24%) realized +$347 · open −$984
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.2% -17.8% 33% 33% -49.0%
≤30d 3 -9.2% -17.8% 33% 33% -49.0%
≤90d 3 -9.2% -17.8% 33% 33% -49.0%
all 3 -9.2% -17.8% 33% 33% -49.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 33% -49.0%
10% -25.7% 33% -53.9%
15% -32.9% 33% -58.3%
20% -39.5% 33% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$448 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$984
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 6¢ $1,103 $119 −$984 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $307 +$248 +81%
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $306 −$26 -8%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $892 −$870 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $161 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $286 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $280 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $306 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $307 13h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $682 15h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $892 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.10 · official $49.04 · 9 history records