Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8239…466c crypto 476 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,841 (+8%) realized +$2,841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%266W / 269L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day88.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$770
7 days−$770
14 days−$770
30 days−$986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,761
sports 1% −$64
other 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -64.1% -67.6% 14% 13% -53.7%
≤30d 352 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 41% -13.4%
≤90d 535 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 47% -7.1%
all 535 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 47% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 42% -16.0%
15% -25.2% 30% -24.1%
20% -32.5% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$2,841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses266 / 269
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)535 / 476
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day88.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 535 Trades
no open positions (172 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$38 +910%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $24 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.00 · official $102.00 (match) · 3500 history records