Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8238…5b82 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$9 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤30d 4 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤90d 4 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 50% -18.4%
all 4 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 50% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 50% -18.4%
10% -28.3% 50% -26.2%
15% -35.2% 25% -33.3%
20% -41.6% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $43 +$37 +86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$7 -70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 +$13 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $95 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $58 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $39 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.52 · official $116.52 (match) · 10 history records