Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

82 0x8238…62b8 crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$73 (-43%) realized −$87 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip

Net edge-50%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%4W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-49.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	18	-44.2%	-49.5%	22%	22%	-68.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.5%	22%	-68.7%
10%	-54.3%	22%	-71.7%
15%	-58.8%	17%	-74.5%
20%	-62.8%	11%	-77.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -44% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late -91% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.2 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage

Net worth$63

Realized−$87

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses4 / 14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage150d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	12¢	16¢	$48	$63	+$14 (+29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Jan 25	$7	−$7	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Jan 25	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Jan 25	$5	−$5	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Jan 25	$14	−$14	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Jan 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Jan 25	$11	−$5	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Jan 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Jan 25	$8	−$3	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Jan 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Jan 25	$7	−$7	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Jan 25	$13	−$13	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Jan 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Jan 25	$4	+$11	+280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Jan 25	$6	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Jan 25	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Jan 25	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Jan 25	$6	+$2	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Jan 25	$3	+$5	+171%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	12¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$7	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$2	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Up	0¢	$0	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$9	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$4	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$4	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$3	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	47¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$4	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$4	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$2	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$3	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$3	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$9	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$2	149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$2	149d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.53 · official $62.53 (match) · 55 history records