Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x8236…faf0 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-3%) realized −$453 · open +$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$754per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,028
7 days−$1,028
14 days−$1,028
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$973
tech 31% +$263
sports 16% +$185
politics 6% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.7% -18.3% 75% 25% -33.1%
≤30d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 90% 40% -16.4%
≤90d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 90% 40% -16.4%
all 10 +1.9% -7.8% 90% 40% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 40% -16.4%
10% -16.7% 0% -24.4%
15% -24.7% 0% -31.7%
20% -32.1% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$1,224 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,294
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$186
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage28d
Avg bet$754
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $1,561 $1,722 +$162 (+10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $420 $415 −$5 (-1%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season ShindeN 82¢ 100¢ $128 $156 +$28 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 22 $1,772 −$1,224 -69%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $601 +$19 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $571 +$124 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 22 $1,007 +$53 +5%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $52 +$9 +17%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Red Hot Chili Pibble vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Jun 03 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $502 +$48 +10%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 01 $2,328 +$255 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $742 +$127 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY ShindeN 82¢ $129 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 24¢ $127 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $401 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 26¢ $422 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 76¢ $619 11h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 81¢ $94 18h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 97¢ $601 18h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $694 18h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 81¢ $265 18h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $265 18h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 80¢ $794 18h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $795 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $61 17d
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 85¢ $52 17d
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el SELL Yes 99¢ $52 17d
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el BUY Yes 99¢ $52 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $571 19d
Dota 2: Red Hot Chili Pibble vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup BUY Team Nemesis 97¢ $50 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,509 19d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $1,003 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $4 24d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 90¢ $266 24d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 91¢ $502 24d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 86¢ $503 24d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 95¢ $573 26d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 92¢ $236 26d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 96¢ $61 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 85¢ $742 26d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 86¢ $688 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,294.11 · official $2,293.67 (match) · 36 history records