trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +14.9% | +3.9% | 33% | 33% | +5.0% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -34.0% | -40.3% | 6% | 6% | -27.3% |
| all | 21 | -30.4% | -37.0% | 5% | 5% | -27.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.0% | 5% | -27.0% |
| 10% | -43.0% | 5% | -33.9% |
| 15% | -48.5% | 5% | -40.3% |
| 20% | -53.6% | 5% | -46.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 23¢ | $23 | $30 | +$6 (+27%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $19 | −$3 | -16% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 31 | $15 | +$11 | +70% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 30 | $8 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 16 | $7 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 30 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 30 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 30 | $3 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 30 | $2 | $0 | -13% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 08 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 08 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 08 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 08 | $1 | $0 | -23% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? | Apr 01 | $12 | −$8 | -68% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Apr 01 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? | Apr 01 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lions vs. Ravens | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 22 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Sep 22 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Sep 22 | $1 | $0 | -2% |