Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8236…b1b0 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized −$2 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$6
sports 9% +$10
crypto 7% −$8
politics 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +14.9% +3.9% 33% 33% +5.0%
≤90d 18 -34.0% -40.3% 6% 6% -27.3%
all 21 -30.4% -37.0% 5% 5% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 5% -27.0%
10% -43.0% 5% -33.9%
15% -48.5% 5% -40.3%
20% -53.6% 5% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×7.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage278d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $23 $30 +$6 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $19 −$3 -16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $15 +$11 +70%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $3 $0 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $3 $0 -11%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2 $0 -13%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1 $0 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? Apr 01 $12 −$8 -68%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Lions vs. Ravens Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $33 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 24d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 29d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 29d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 42d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 58d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 58d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 58d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 58d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 58d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 58d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 58d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 59d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 59d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 59d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 60d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 60d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 60d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 80d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.38 · official $32.21 (match) · 184 history records