Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8233…df36 other 207 markets active 13h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,525 (-8%) realized −$2,524 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%53W / 151L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$69
14 days−$2,675
30 days−$2,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$42
finance 16% −$562
sports 16% −$613
crypto 9% −$1,914
other 6% +$12
tech 4% +$633
politics 3% −$230
culture 0% −$75
weather 0% −$37
economics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -65.7% -69.0% 11% 11% -25.0%
≤30d 59 -44.1% -49.4% 27% 12% -26.4%
≤90d 160 -57.7% -61.7% 19% 8% -20.3%
all 204 -17.6% -25.4% 26% 15% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 15% -17.4%
10% -32.6% 13% -25.3%
15% -39.1% 11% -32.5%
20% -45.0% 9% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$38 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$2,524
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses53 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions3
Markets (closed)204 / 207
History coverage250d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+135%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 75¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $131 −$34 -26%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 16 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 05 $10 −$2 -20%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 05 $10 −$2 -16%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 05 $5 +$1 +17%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $9 −$2 -25%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen Jun 05 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $201 −$7 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 04 $10 −$2 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,343 −$1,821 -78%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? Jun 03 $94 −$12 -13%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 03 $637 −$266 -42%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 03 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 03 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during King Charles visit? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 03 $47 −$47 -100%
Will "Michael" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 03 $190 −$177 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $908 +$347 +38%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $47 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,600 +$244 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $11 −$6 -60%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $96 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 15h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $94 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 35h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 10d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 11d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $9 11d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.64 · official $38.65 (match) · 878 history records