Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x8233…36d5 other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,137 (+48%) realized +$2,163 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$357
14 days+$363
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$795
politics 30% +$930
sports 21% +$323
crypto 2% −$26
world 0% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +12.6% +1.9% 51% 44% +10.9%
≤30d 50 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 42% +9.6%
≤90d 50 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 42% +9.6%
all 55 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 42% +38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 42% +38.8%
10% -17.0% 38% +25.5%
15% -25.0% 35% +13.4%
20% -32.4% 25% +2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$27 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$2,163
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage611d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $70 $44 −$26 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $71 +$54 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $191 −$28 -15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $81 +$3 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$119 +232%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 +$133 +650%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 −$39 -64%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -61%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $168 −$98 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$60 +118%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $92 +$7 +7%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $97 −$96 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$146 +286%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $111 +$60 +54%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$115 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 13m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 79¢ $103 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 38¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $92 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 47¢ $58 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $39 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $47 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $109 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 43¢ $85 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $45 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $83 29h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 30h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $80 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.67 · official $43.67 (match) · 149 history records