Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8232…0ad1 politics 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$592 (+7%) realized +$568 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate78%236W / 67L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$11
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$403
other 25% +$170
world 14% +$64
sports 3% −$40
crypto 1% −$11
tech 1% +$16
culture 0% +$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.2% +3.3% 100% 17% -1.5%
≤30d 25 -4.6% -13.7% 84% 24% -9.4%
≤90d 37 -3.8% -12.9% 81% 35% -8.6%
all 303 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 29% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 29% -2.9%
10% -20.0% 16% -12.2%
15% -27.8% 7% -20.6%
20% -34.8% 5% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$945
Realized+$568
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses236 / 67
Open positions13
Markets (closed)303 / 316
History coverage615d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 77¢ $554 $577 +$23 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $126 $134 +$8 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 99¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+6%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 61¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-29%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 27¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $54 +$5 +9%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump praise Karoline Leavitt by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $29 +$4 +14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 01 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +7%
US bank failure by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$4 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $351 +$20 +6%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026? May 30 $304 +$7 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $28 −$26 -93%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 29 $10 −$4 -44%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before August? May 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? May 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? May 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will OpenAI accuse Microsoft of violating antitrust before August? May 14 $2 $0 +18%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? May 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first we May 14 $3 $0 +5%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? May 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? May 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $4 −$2 -49%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 10 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of Jul 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jul 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks? Jul 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July? Jul 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jul 13 $9 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jul 13 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Iranian officials visit the White House in June? Jul 13 $24 +$2 +6%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jul 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before July? Jul 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15? Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 54m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $30 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 3d
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $5 5d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $30 8d
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 13d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $2 13d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 95¢ $5 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 13d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 86¢ $10 14d
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 15d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 15d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 15d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 15d
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 15d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 15d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 15d
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 94¢ $5 15d
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 87¢ $5 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $20 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.02 · official $963.76 · 981 history records