Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8231…5671 sports 37 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$12
weather 31% −$5
other 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 54% -13.9%
≤30d 37 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 54% -13.9%
≤90d 37 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 54% -13.9%
all 37 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 54% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 54% -13.9%
10% -22.9% 35% -22.1%
15% -30.4% 24% -29.7%
20% -37.2% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $86 −$8 -9%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $27 +$14 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $25 −$11 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $26 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 9¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $5 46h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 46h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 23¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $42 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 76¢ $42 47h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 27¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $36 47h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 58¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 73¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 45¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 76¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 96¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 98¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records