trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? | Yes | 41¢ | 26¢ | $1,624 | $1,047 | −$577 (-36%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? | No | 4¢ | 2¢ | $672 | $314 | −$357 (-53%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 18¢ | 5¢ | $54 | $15 | −$39 (-72%) |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $9 | $14 | +$5 (+59%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $28 | $7 | −$21 (-75%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 7¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-90%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $310 | +$127 | +41% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $133 | −$27 | -20% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $238 | +$104 | +44% |
| Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? | Jun 02 | $4 | −$4 | -92% |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Jun 02 | $120 | −$56 | -47% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 02 | $34 | −$11 | -33% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | May 31 | $1,464 | −$188 | -13% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | May 31 | $384 | +$16 | +4% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | May 21 | $332 | +$20 | +6% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 20 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 16 | $226 | −$22 | -10% |
| Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | May 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? | May 15 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? | May 14 | $315 | +$41 | +13% |
| Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? | May 13 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | May 13 | $221 | +$50 | +23% |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | May 09 | $866 | +$406 | +47% |
| Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? | May 06 | $17 | +$93 | +544% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $369 | −$229 | -62% |
| Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? | Apr 19 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | Apr 17 | $0 | $0 | +25% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | Apr 17 | $6 | −$5 | -73% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Apr 12 | $58 | +$20 | +35% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Apr 02 | $110 | −$14 | -13% |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Mar 25 | $100 | −$39 | -39% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Mar 25 | $100 | −$10 | -10% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 17 | $112 | −$7 | -6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +21.6% | +10.0% | 67% | 67% | +17.7% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -29.1% | -35.8% | 36% | 21% | -12.8% |
| ≤90d | 27 | -4.9% | -14.0% | 37% | 30% | -8.5% |
| all | 27 | -4.9% | -14.0% | 37% | 30% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.0% | 30% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -22.2% | 26% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -29.7% | 15% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 4% | -32.6% |