Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8231…c02e
crypto · 434 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,272 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,285 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104
Realized+$1,285
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses265 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)433 / 434
History coverage2d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1666.9
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 433 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,285
7 days+$1,285
14 days+$1,285
30 days+$1,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 59¢ 80¢ $70 $95 +$25 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 52¢ 20¢ $21 $8 −$13 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $125 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $943 +$57 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $428 +$72 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $622 +$41 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $66 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $85 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$34 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$48 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $67 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $213 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$80 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $107 +$60 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $154 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $250 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$38 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $299 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $190 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $162 −$125 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $122 −$82 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $27 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $17 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $37 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 433 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 45% -6.1%
≤30d 433 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 45% -6.1%
≤90d 433 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 45% -6.1%
all 433 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 45% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1666.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 45% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 30% -15.1%
15% -25.4% 23% -23.3%
20% -32.7% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.60 · official $103.60 (match) · 3500 history records