Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8230…6a0b crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-5%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -86.6% -87.8% 0% 0% -83.9%
≤30d 20 -14.5% -22.6% 35% 30% -36.3%
≤90d 20 -14.5% -22.6% 35% 30% -36.3%
all 20 -14.5% -22.6% 35% 30% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 30% -36.3%
10% -30.0% 30% -42.4%
15% -36.8% 30% -48.0%
20% -43.0% 30% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage11d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $94 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$69 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$31 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$30 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $50 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $35 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records