Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
82 0x8230…a577 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$12,074 (+260%) realized +$12,116 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +243% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +210% what you keep after slip
Net edge+210%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$9,725
other 6% +$2,455
world 2% −$85
politics 1% −$65
economics 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+210.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +372.7% +327.7% 36% 36% +413.9%
≤90d 24 +176.1% +149.8% 21% 21% +221.1%
all 54 +243.2% +210.5% 35% 35% +238.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +210.5% 35% +238.9%
10% +180.8% 35% +206.5%
15% +153.7% 33% +176.9%
20% +128.8% 33% +149.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +274% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +243% · $-wt +284% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +337% → late +149% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$749 vs −$63 · ×11.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.49 per $1 lost it wins $6.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$12,116
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage699d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $90 $83 −$7 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $96 −$90 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $53 +$210 +398%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $107 +$1,946 +1822%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $117 +$1,569 +1339%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $112 +$2,621 +2338%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $106 +$593 +559%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $75 −$70 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $43 −$40 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 27 $363 −$341 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 22 $149 −$140 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 22 $43 −$40 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 17 $128 −$120 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 08 $130 −$122 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 02 $100 −$94 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 27 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Mar 24 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 24 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $39 −$27 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Mar 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 23-March 1? Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Kamala president by Friday? Mar 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 03 $146 +$48 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 08 $200 −$19 -10%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 2-8? Feb 05 $40 +$357 +892%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 2-8? Feb 05 $40 +$433 +1082%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8? Feb 05 $280 +$1,685 +602%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8? Feb 05 $60 +$225 +376%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8? Feb 05 $40 +$81 +201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on February 8? Feb 05 $40 +$389 +973%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on February 7? Feb 05 $100 +$600 +600%
USDE depeg by December 31? Feb 03 $60 −$19 -32%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Feb 03 $70 −$6 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1? Jan 31 $15 +$185 +1245%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Jan 31 $80 −$51 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 31 $27 +$120 +452%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $50 +$384 +767%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $100 −$85 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 1¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 8¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 59¢ $2,053 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,733 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 100¢ $699 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 14¢ $106 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 6¢ $107 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $43 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 9¢ $106 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.55 · official $247.55 (match) · 117 history records