Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
82 0x822d…339b sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+12%) realized +$279 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$337
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$43
other 35% +$56
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.2% +27.8% 100% 80% +44.6%
≤30d 10 -15.4% -23.5% 60% 50% +6.1%
≤90d 10 -15.4% -23.5% 60% 50% +6.1%
all 10 -15.4% -23.5% 60% 50% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 50% +6.1%
10% -30.8% 50% -4.1%
15% -37.5% 40% -13.3%
20% -43.6% 20% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$54 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$279
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 32¢ $350 $259 −$91 (-26%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 12¢ $94 $57 −$37 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $261 +$191 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $167 +$91 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$53 +46%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$22 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $96 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $356 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $261 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $167 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $115 6d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 8¢ $4 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $80 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $56 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $23 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.28 · official $315.28 (match) · 20 history records