Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
82 0x8228…b2fb sports 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,274 (+7%) realized +$42,199 · open −$4,925
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%164W / 127L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,711per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$3,617est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$3,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19,748
7 days+$15,313
14 days+$2,415
30 days+$21,212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$15,948
sports 49% +$9,824
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% +10.0%
≤30d 126 +9.6% -0.9% 55% 55% -2.1%
≤90d 291 +10.7% +0.2% 56% 56% -3.9%
all 291 +10.7% +0.2% 56% 56% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 56% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.4% 56% -13.1%
15% -18.2% 56% -21.5%
20% -26.2% 55% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$2,303) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,477 vs −$1,666 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$3,659
Realized+$42,199
Unrealized−$4,925
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses164 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,617
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,711
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) New York Liberty 47¢ 39¢ $3,150 $2,614 −$536 (-17%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) New York Liberty 52¢ 42¢ $1,304 $1,041 −$263 (-20%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ $4,130 $4 −$4,126 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,159 +$11,118 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6,667 +$5,299 +80%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,015 +$998 +98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,855 −$3,800 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,506 +$3,878 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4,999 +$5,256 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,132 +$2,388 +76%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $1,097 −$1,080 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,210 +$2,013 +91%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $991 +$1,222 +123%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,237 −$3,190 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,804 +$1,432 +79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,846 −$3,788 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,534 −$688 -15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $325 −$320 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,714 +$2,949 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,935 −$227 -12%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,997 −$1,968 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,041 +$792 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $91 +$79 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $152 +$136 +90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,784 −$1,033 -58%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $3,771 −$3,718 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,103 −$2,073 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2,905 −$2,860 -98%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2,560 +$2,033 +79%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2,031 +$2,135 +105%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $142 +$117 +83%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $405 +$309 +76%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10,332 −$10,170 -98%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2,516 −$2,480 -99%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $345 −$340 -99%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8,305 +$8,853 +107%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $68 +$58 +86%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $203 +$205 +101%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 01 $9 +$10 +109%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $586 +$504 +86%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3,039 +$2,222 +73%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $4,335 −$335 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $441 −$435 -99%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $7,451 −$7,350 -99%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2,028 +$1,676 +83%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1,337 −$1,318 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5,843 −$5,750 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $582 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $586 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $2,032 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $4 4h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $1,319 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $679 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $5,079 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $5,079 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $995 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $995 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $2,029 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $1,225 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2,028 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $497 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $1,013 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2,029 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $811 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $1,904 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $965 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $4,032 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,177 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3,326 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,658.56 · official $3,658.56 (match) · 798 history records