Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8227…2432 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-22%) realized −$247 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$110
sports 26% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.3% -20.7% 43% 43% -41.3%
≤30d 7 -12.3% -20.7% 43% 43% -41.3%
≤90d 7 -12.3% -20.7% 43% 43% -41.3%
all 7 -12.3% -20.7% 43% 43% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 43% -41.3%
10% -28.3% 43% -46.9%
15% -35.2% 43% -52.1%
20% -41.6% 29% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$72 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $80 $162 +$82 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$27 -89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$37 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$110 -57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$53 -52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 33m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 55m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $61 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $98 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $119 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $84 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $48 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.59 · official $161.59 (match) · 22 history records