Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8227…0151 other 99 markets active 2d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$9
politics 34% −$7
sports 7% −$12
world 6% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 2% -9.8%
all 99 +0.6% -9.0% 8% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage109d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $322 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $318 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $281 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $335 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $146 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $484 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $370 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $299 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $140 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $167 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $292 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $465 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $136 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $157 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $157 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $134 19d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $134 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $135 32d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $114 33d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $21 33d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $147 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $147 39d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 39d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 40d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 40d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 40d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $176 40d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $176 40d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $132 40d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $132 41d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $141 41d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $141 42d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 42d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 42d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $146 42d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $146 43d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 43d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 43d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $185 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records