Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8227…013d other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,888 (-5%) realized −$15,888 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%37W / 37L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,661per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$969est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 374d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$11,465
other 33% −$4,518
crypto 23% −$14,889
world 1% −$90
weather 0% −$799
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -23.7% -30.9% 45% 30% -11.5%
≤30d 41 -23.1% -30.4% 46% 29% -11.5%
≤90d 41 -23.1% -30.4% 46% 29% -11.5%
all 74 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 23% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 23% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 8% -23.3%
15% -40.2% 5% -30.7%
20% -46.0% 3% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$7,064) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$618 vs −$1,517 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,888
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses37 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$969
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage374d
Avg bet$4,661
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,030 −$2,916 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9,659 −$9,500 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,776 −$2,326 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15,943 +$857 +5%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $4,105 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,908 +$227 +12%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,005 −$2,000 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$95 -92%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $20,297 −$772 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $867 −$127 -15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15,355 +$1,557 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$50 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13,119 +$2,184 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,014 −$906 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $606 −$217 -36%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,987 +$227 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10,033 +$1,180 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$39 -39%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9,267 +$2,878 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,917 −$1,349 -34%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $8,512 +$1,083 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $11,147 −$10,590 -95%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $9,547 +$1,542 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24,511 −$1,003 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10,093 −$1,558 -15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,388 +$860 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,638 +$1,574 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9,312 +$1,275 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,227 +$2,073 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7,571 +$429 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6,390 +$1,109 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $94 +$10 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5,553 +$1,018 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,019 +$440 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $241 −$210 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 14 $11,958 −$10,981 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 14 $10,918 +$288 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 14 $2,502 +$125 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 14 $2,542 −$40 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 14 $4,567 −$4,567 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 14 $4,285 +$281 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 14 $3,382 +$903 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $3,360 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 14 $18 +$8 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $875 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $9,150 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $723 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $745 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,539 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $904 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $339 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $467 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $977 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,896 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,900 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,002 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $299 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 680 history records