Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
82 0x821e…8d79 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$49 (+21%) realized +$61 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$22
14 days+$39
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$15
sports 42% +$16
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 44% +19.5%
≤30d 19 +46.0% +32.1% 53% 53% +26.0%
≤90d 58 +24.1% +12.3% 36% 36% +13.3%
all 58 +24.1% +12.3% 36% 36% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 36% +13.3%
10% +1.6% 34% +2.4%
15% -8.3% 34% -7.5%
20% -17.2% 34% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage69d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $59 $47 −$12 (-21%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$16 +156%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$9 +20%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$6 +287%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +468%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +170%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$6 +99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6 +$12 +203%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$4 +213%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $2 +$3 +170%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $1 +$2 +226%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $2 +$5 +250%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 27 $1 +$5 +550%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $1 +$1 +146%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $1 +$2 +241%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $2 +$7 +363%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $1 +$10 +981%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 21 $1 +$2 +188%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $1 +$2 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $45 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 48¢ $2 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 65¢ $12 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $6 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $10 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 62¢ $18 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $2 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 28¢ $2 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 35¢ $2 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $2 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 28¢ $4 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $10 31d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 27¢ $2 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 36¢ $2 35d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 30¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.67 · official $51.67 (match) · 86 history records