Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x821c…8ad8 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$4
other 23% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 19 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 19 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 5% -10.3%
all 42 +0.1% -9.5% 31% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage286d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +10%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $17 −$4 -22%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Dec 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Dec 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 07 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 05 $30 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 28 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $27 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $25 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $3 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $27 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $30 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $17 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.90 · official $28.90 (match) · 153 history records