Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8218…ef39 crypto 822 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$372 (-5%) realized −$372 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%250W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$628
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -11.3% -19.7% 49% 34% -16.2%
≤30d 393 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 31% -19.2%
≤90d 822 -11.5% -19.9% 30% 19% -17.4%
all 822 -11.5% -19.9% 30% 19% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 19% -17.4%
10% -27.6% 12% -25.3%
15% -34.6% 9% -32.5%
20% -41.0% 6% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses250 / 572
Open positions0
Markets (closed)822 / 822
History coverage80d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 822 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2248 history records