Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x8218…1960 crypto 513 markets active 18h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,126 (-1%) realized −$1,126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%329W / 184L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$139
14 days−$259
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,859
other 1% +$506
world 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +3.3% -6.6% 49% 41% -8.6%
≤30d 373 +7.2% -3.0% 55% 46% -10.1%
≤90d 374 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 47% -10.1%
all 513 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 40% -10.3%
10% -14.4% 30% -18.9%
15% -22.6% 24% -26.7%
20% -30.2% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$51 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses329 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)513 / 513
History coverage164d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 513 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$8 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$11 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $24 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $22 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1219 history records