Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8217…4da1 politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 37% −$14
sports 9% −$55
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 138 -4.8% -13.9% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage129d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $176 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $356 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $613 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $341 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $363 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $148 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $344 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $194 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $350 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $158 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $174 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $547 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 30h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 30h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $199 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $199 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $172 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 28d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $215 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $173 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 31d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 32d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 33d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $214 33d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $214 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $163 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 413 history records