Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
82 0x8217…39b1 politics 712 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 300d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,235 (+7%) realized +$6,173 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%498W / 208L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$136
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$2,834
other 24% +$2,050
world 17% +$469
crypto 3% +$31
sports 2% +$173
economics 2% +$71
tech 1% +$102
culture 1% +$178
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.8% -4.3% 83% 17% -7.7%
≤30d 35 +4.2% -5.7% 77% 34% -2.6%
≤90d 189 +15.3% +4.4% 74% 32% -6.2%
all 706 +20.0% +8.6% 71% 36% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 36% -3.7%
10% -1.8% 24% -12.9%
15% -11.3% 16% -21.3%
20% -20.0% 12% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized+$6,173
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses498 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)706 / 712
History coverage300d ⚠
Avg bet$122
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 79¢ 98¢ $254 $314 +$59 (+23%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 71¢ 62¢ $19 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? No 45¢ 72¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+59%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, Jun 29 $80 −$3 -4%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Panama vs England FIFA W Jun 28 $0 $0 +8%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Panama vs England FIFA W Jun 27 $105 +$3 +2%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Panama vs England FIFA Wo Jun 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl Jun 27 $215 +$6 +3%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $31 +$31 +99%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $113 +$33 +30%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Strait" during Medal of Honor ceremony on Jun 18 $161 +$39 +24%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $65 +$25 +39%
Will "Oil" be in the headlines this week? Jun 15 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 15 $54 +$13 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $749 +$47 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $75 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $688 +$48 +7%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $124 +$43 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $16 +$25 +155%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $81 −$33 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $119 −$65 -55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $163 −$7 -4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $232 +$46 +20%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 08 $1,134 +$41 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $17 −$12 -70%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $588 +$11 +2%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $207 +$64 +31%
Will Trump say "Best of Trump" in June? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $175 +$22 +13%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026? May 31 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? May 31 $98 +$13 +13%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) May 29 $230 +$13 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 29 $28 −$23 -80%
Will Marco Rubio say "President" or "Trump" 30+ times during press bri May 29 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Trump say "Life" 13+ times during Coast Guard event? May 29 $327 −$327 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 29 $510 −$510 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $122 +$16 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $14 +$5 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $80 +$43 +53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $119 +$8 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 70¢ $77 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 73¢ $80 2h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl SELL Yes 100¢ $50 40h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl SELL Yes 100¢ $29 40h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY Yes 98¢ $105 40h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl SELL Yes 100¢ $140 40h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl SELL Yes 100¢ $3 40h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Panama vs England FIFA Wo BUY Yes 98¢ $16 40h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY Yes 97¢ $215 40h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY Yes 92¢ $0 40h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $14 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 7d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 83¢ $34 8d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 81¢ $34 8d
Will Donald Trump dance on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Strait" during Medal of Honor ceremony on BUY No 80¢ $161 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $26 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $101 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 15¢ $15 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $15 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $72 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 14¢ $14 10d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $13 11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $5 11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $4 11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $68 11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $16 11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $16 11d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $34 11d
Will "Oil" be in the headlines this week? SELL Yes 78¢ $78 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.41 · official $382.41 (match) · 3500 history records