Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8215…fa77
crypto · 34 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$170
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage606d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 9? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 January 26-1? Mar 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? Mar 12 $149 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 18 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 04 $74 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 04 $94 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Nov 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Oct 15 $1,932 −$2 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 15 $1,934 −$2 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 15 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 15 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 15 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$8
crypto 13% +$2
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 35d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 35d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $96 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $73 52d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 92d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $81 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? BUY No 100¢ $81 132d
Will Solana reach $150 January 26-1? BUY No 100¢ $20 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? BUY No 100¢ $68 132d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 146d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $34 146d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $125 191d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $21 191d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 191d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 191d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $94 196d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $74 196d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $52 257d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 293d
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 329d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $58 481d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $58 492d
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $58 521d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 31 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.28 · official $170.28 (match) · 69 history records