Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8213…711c sports 304 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate68%205W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$25
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$2
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +27.7% +15.5% 70% 12% -10.6%
≤30d 301 +34.1% +21.3% 68% 12% -10.5%
≤90d 301 +34.1% +21.3% 68% 12% -10.5%
all 301 +34.1% +21.3% 68% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.3% 12% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here +9.7% 7% -19.1%
15% -0.9% 6% -26.9%
20% -10.6% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses205 / 96
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)301 / 304
History coverage17d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 63¢ 52¢ $25 $21 −$5 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 36¢ 48¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner K27 55¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $1 $0 -31%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $18 −$3 -16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 62¢ $3 17m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 69¢ $3 33m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 31¢ $2 35m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 63¢ $3 42m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 35¢ $2 44m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 30¢ $2 48m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 68¢ $3 49m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 68¢ $3 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 33¢ $2 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 37¢ $2 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 64¢ $3 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 18¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 39¢ $2 57m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 61¢ $3 58m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 31¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 67¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 54¢ $3 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 44¢ $2 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 41¢ $2 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.14 · official $62.55 · 1359 history records