Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x820a…ca12 sports 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$543 (-0%) realized −$543 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate56%206W / 162L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$692per market
Trades / day72.8pace
Fees−$4,629est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$10,602
other 3% +$2,919
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -19.6% -27.2% 50% 17% -32.2%
≤30d 307 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 26% -14.9%
≤90d 368 -10.0% -18.5% 56% 29% -12.3%
all 368 -10.0% -18.5% 56% 29% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 29% -12.3%
10% -26.3% 27% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 24% -28.4%
20% -40.0% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$886) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$378 vs −$528 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$543
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses206 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$4,629
Open positions0
Markets (closed)368 / 368
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$692
Trades / day72.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 368 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $48 −$47 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $286 −$281 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $465 +$434 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $440 −$440 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $334 +$116 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $487 +$284 +58%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $565 −$235 -42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $343 −$1 -0%
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Kyrgios Jun 16 $96 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Ben Shelton vs. Nick Kyrgios: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Lajal vs Blanchet Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $100 −$7 -7%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $1,283 −$298 -23%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 16 $91 −$11 -12%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $100 −$33 -34%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $100 −$15 -15%
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 16 $27 −$7 -26%
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $61 −$16 -27%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $78 −$40 -51%
Lois Boisson vs. Dayana Yastremska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$33 -36%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $89 −$23 -26%
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $58 −$7 -13%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +0%
Dart vs. Boulter: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $399 −$399 -100%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $295 −$295 -100%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $2,400 +$49 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Buse vs Jodar Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $1,498 +$120 +8%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $47 +$55 +115%
Set 2 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $72 +$24 +33%
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $74 +$28 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $733 −$731 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1,131 −$1,110 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,347 +$186 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $460 +$230 +50%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1,038 −$1,021 -98%
Bu vs. Riedi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Leandro Riedi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 59¢ $48 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 47¢ $286 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $21 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $53 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $44 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $112 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $110 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $187 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 20h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $450 20h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 44¢ $45 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 49¢ $50 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 53¢ $371 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $334 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $282 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 40h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $12 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $0 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $1 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $3 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $16 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 33¢ $16 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $72 46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 48¢ $487 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records