Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x8208…00bc crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$312 (-20%) realized −$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$32
other 41% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -21.9%
≤30d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -21.9%
≤90d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -21.9%
all 10 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 50% -21.9%
10% -28.7% 40% -29.4%
15% -35.6% 40% -36.2%
20% -41.9% 40% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$145 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$159 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$164 +79%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $336 +$64 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $319 −$312 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $217 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $400 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 84¢ $336 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $319 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records