Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8207…af57 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-8%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$42
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$40
other 29% −$55
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -28.9% -35.7% 35% 35% -18.7%
≤30d 46 -24.5% -31.7% 37% 30% -28.3%
≤90d 46 -24.5% -31.7% 37% 30% -28.3%
all 46 -24.5% -31.7% 37% 30% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 30% -28.3%
10% -38.3% 28% -35.2%
15% -44.2% 22% -41.4%
20% -49.7% 20% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage15d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 85¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $157 −$2 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$5 +223%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $49 +$14 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 +$9 +107%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$9 +88%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $126 +$28 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +353%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +44%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $9 +$9 +99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $17 +$14 +84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +303%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +246%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +112%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $11 44m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $179 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $77 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $77 4h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 20h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $49 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $9 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $11 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $62 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $62 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 32h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $21 45h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $20 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 63¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $14 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $6 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $9 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $2 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $9 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $14 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $11 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $6 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.09 · official $111.09 (match) · 106 history records