Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8202…80b8 crypto 1002 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$477 (-19%) realized −$477 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%565W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$48
14 days−$139
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$187
other 6% −$78
sports 1% −$11
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 45% -16.9%
≤30d 661 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 46% -22.0%
≤90d 1002 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 34% -19.4%
all 1002 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 34% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 34% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 32% -27.1%
15% -29.9% 31% -34.2%
20% -36.8% 29% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$477
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses565 / 437
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1002 / 1002
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1002 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetB Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records