Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8201…5d39 crypto 408 markets active 15h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95,262 (-179%) realized −$95,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%205W / 563L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day102.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114,973
7 days−$115,676
14 days−$114,821
30 days−$114,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,228
sports 2% −$561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 461 -61.1% -64.8% 9% 8% -90.7%
≤30d 705 -40.9% -46.5% 25% 21% -73.1%
≤90d 768 -39.5% -45.3% 27% 22% -71.6%
all 768 -39.5% -45.3% 27% 22% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.3% 22% -71.6%
10% ← realistic here -50.5% 19% -74.3%
15% -55.3% 15% -76.8%
20% -59.7% 12% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$231 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses205 / 563
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)768 / 408
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day102.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 768 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $897 −$897 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $301 +$247 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $621 −$621 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $992 −$992 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4AM ET Jun 17 $296 −$492 -166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,607 −$1,607 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$40 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$727 -348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$34 -545%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$1,067 -999%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET Jun 17 $509 +$281 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$108 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $362 −$362 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1575%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $355 −$355 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $984 −$984 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $394 −$394 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $62 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $46 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $42 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $34 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records