trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Alex Pereira | 50¢ | 50¢ | $1,982 | $1,962 | −$20 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 46¢ | $1,012 | $780 | −$231 (-23%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | No | 42¢ | 55¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+30%) |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | FURIA | 26¢ | 0¢ | $86 | $0 | −$86 (-100%) |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $135 | $0 | −$135 (-100%) |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Gilbert Burns | 29¢ | 0¢ | $84 | $0 | −$84 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? | May 14 | $137 | −$135 | -98% |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 10 | $101 | +$393 | +388% |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? | May 08 | $177 | +$35 | +20% |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car | Apr 18 | $86 | −$84 | -98% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Apr 18 | $88 | −$86 | -98% |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca | Apr 12 | $107 | +$241 | +226% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET | Apr 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) | Mar 08 | $198 | +$352 | +178% |
| Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 28 | $500 | −$355 | -71% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 28 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 30 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 29 | $1,933 | +$1,668 | +86% |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Nov 16 | $997 | +$367 | +37% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Nov 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Nov 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? | Nov 02 | $490 | −$490 | -100% |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? | Nov 02 | $1,478 | +$331 | +22% |
| Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Oct 23 | $983 | +$1,114 | +113% |
| Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch? | Oct 23 | $1,973 | +$2,580 | +131% |
| Oliveira vs. Gamrot | Oct 12 | $684 | +$104 | +15% |
| Ankalaev vs. Pereira | Oct 05 | $305 | +$678 | +222% |
| FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance) | Jul 09 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Jul 09 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira | Jul 09 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Jul 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +33.4% | +20.7% | 43% | 43% | +37.1% |
| all | 25 | +11.3% | +0.7% | 48% | 48% | +41.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.7% | 48% | +41.0% |
| 10% | -8.9% | 36% | +27.5% |
| 15% | -17.7% | 32% | +15.2% |
| 20% | -25.8% | 28% | +3.9% |