Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:58:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ff…81ea
sports · 27 markets active 1h ago
9.0score
+$6,058 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,077 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,748
Realized+$6,077
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage403d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 2 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $1,982 $1,962 −$20 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $1,012 $780 −$231 (-23%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs FURIA 26¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? Yes 50¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) Gilbert Burns 29¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $137 −$135 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 +$393 +388%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $177 +$35 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $88 −$86 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $107 +$241 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $198 +$352 +178%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 28 $500 −$355 -71%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $1,933 +$1,668 +86%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $997 +$367 +37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Nov 02 $490 −$490 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? Nov 02 $1,478 +$331 +22%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 23 $983 +$1,114 +113%
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch? Oct 23 $1,973 +$2,580 +131%
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Oct 12 $684 +$104 +15%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $305 +$678 +222%
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance) Jul 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jul 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% +$4,751
sports 36% +$1,445
economics 1% −$131
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,024 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2,011 6h
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $137 29d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $494 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $101 35d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 66¢ $213 36d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 37d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 54¢ $142 37d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 29¢ $86 55d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY FURIA 26¢ $88 56d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca SELL Paulo Costa 100¢ $347 62d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 30¢ $107 62d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Charles Oliveira 100¢ $550 97d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $198 98d
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 19¢ $145 136d
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 67¢ $500 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 164d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 167d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 195d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 195d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 195d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,124 195d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,378 196d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 38¢ $478 196d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $555 197d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Makhachev 100¢ $1,364 209d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 73¢ $997 209d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,809 223d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,478 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 +33.4% +20.7% 43% 43% +37.1%
all 25 +11.3% +0.7% 48% 48% +41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 48% +41.0%
10% -8.9% 36% +27.5%
15% -17.7% 32% +15.2%
20% -25.8% 28% +3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,748.36 · official $2,748.36 (match) · 61 history records