Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ff…331f
crypto · 960 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,918 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,917 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$3,917
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses563 / 389
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)952 / 960
History coverage39d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day71.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 952 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$94
14 days+$80
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 72¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$11 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$25 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$33 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$16 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3,920
other 0% −$9
world 0% $0
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +6.5% -3.7% 69% 59% -5.0%
≤30d 571 -4.0% -13.2% 64% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 952 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 46% -16.9%
all 952 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 46% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 46% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 32% -24.8%
15% -30.7% 20% -32.1%
20% -37.5% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.34 · official $23.34 (match) · 3500 history records