Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81fc…1f80 crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+7%) realized +$241 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%72W / 35L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day75.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$188
14 days+$222
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +8.3% -2.0% 67% 65% -3.0%
≤30d 107 +9.4% -1.1% 67% 65% -2.0%
≤90d 107 +9.4% -1.1% 67% 65% -2.0%
all 107 +9.4% -1.1% 67% 65% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 65% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 64% -11.4%
15% -19.2% 60% -20.0%
20% -27.1% 46% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses72 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 63¢ 4¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$21 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$15 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$9 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$4 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $68 +$22 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$17 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$5 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$15 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$33 +263%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$27 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$17 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $23 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $14 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $39 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $43 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $17 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.53 · official $22.44 · 560 history records