Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81fa…2b2e crypto 297 markets active 6d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-16%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%117W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$47
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -45.5% -50.7% 30% 28% -37.0%
≤30d 275 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 35% -28.2%
≤90d 297 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 35% -27.4%
all 297 -23.0% -30.3% 39% 35% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 35% -27.4%
10% -37.0% 31% -34.4%
15% -43.1% 29% -40.7%
20% -48.7% 27% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses117 / 180
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (125 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -53%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 675 history records