Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81fa…0813 sports 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$7
politics 24% −$4
other 15% −$2
culture 8% −$2
economics 7% −$1
world 7% −$1
crypto 6% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 222 -0.6% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 207
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage171d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $139 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $456 −$2 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 03 $96 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $133 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 03 $42 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $117 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $35 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $35 5h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 7d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 7d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 20d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 20d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 27d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $35 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $35 35d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $39 108d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $39 108d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $32 108d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $32 108d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $37 108d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $37 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $29 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $29 108d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $33 108d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $33 108d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $34 108d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $34 108d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $32 108d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $33 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $33 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $33 108d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 108d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 838 history records